Going into spring training Yankee management pretty much knows who will make the 25-man roster with the exception of maybe a couple spots or so. Even then, it's basically down to a few known candidates with the survivors being either someone who outplays the competition or someone who performs themselves off the roster with a lackluster showing.
But every now and then someone comes out of nowhere and surprises everyone. It could be a veteran on a minor league deal who puts it all together to snare a roster spot, or an under-the-radar minor league prospect who harnesses their potential all at once to turn heads and make management revaluate their plans and timetables. One of the axioms of baseball is to not put to much faith in spring training showings. What happens in Florida won't necessary continue in New York, but if someone has made you take notice, it's hard to turn it aside as just some spring mirage.
It's spring and even the hopeless have high hopes. Let's dare to imagine the unimaginable. Who could the surprise of camp be?
First, let's eliminate some players not because they couldn't be the choice but because it really wouldn't surprise me. For example, Jesus Montero. It would be great if he had a tremendous spring and ripped the cover off the ball, but that wouldn't surprise me. Juan Miranda wouldn't surprise me either. He's been knocking on the door for a couple of years now. Ivan Nova or Zach McAllister won't surprise me because I already feel they are on the verge of being big league pitchers. I think Kevin Russo will battle Ramiro Pena for the backup infield job, and that Romulo Sanchez will contend for a bullpen role. I'm going for the long shots or the ones who supposedly have no shots. Here are my darkest of darkhorses:
Jorge Vazquez - A former Mexican Leaguer who hit .321 over his career there with 151 home runs. He hit .329 with 13 homers for Trenton last year. He'll be 28 and plays first-base, but projects as a DH if he makes the majors.
Eduardo Nunez - A freeseinger who hit .322 with 9 homers and 55 rbis, but walked only 22 times in 497 at-bats last year at Trenton. A shortstop with a strong arm but a guy who makes a lot of errors (33).
Brandon Laird -Brandon hit 13 homers with 75 rbis at Tampa last year, and then followed that up a .333 batting average in the Arizona Fall League. He can play first or third base, but needs work on his defensive skills.
David Winfree - A 23-year old signed as a minor league free agent from the Twins organization. Winfree is an outfielder with some power and has a strong arm. However, he's slow and lacks on-base skills.
Greg Golson - Selected by the Phillies in the first round (#21) in the 2004 Draft; he has never lived up to expectations. Greg is very fast and a good defensive outfielder, but hasn't hit and strikes out a lot.
Jason Hirsch -Big at 6'8"/260; he was once the top prospect in the Astros organization in 2005. He also was the Texas League Pitcher of the Year and the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year before injuries (rotator cuff) derailed his career. The 28-year old righthander went 4-0 with a 1.35 era at Scranton last year.
Grant Duff - The 6'6 right-handed pitcher is 27 years old and had 4-2 record at Trenton with a 3.22 era. He's one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the organization with a fastball that has allegedly touched 99 mph.
Kevin Whelan - A hard-throwing right-handed pitcher with a good splitter, Whelan is now 26 years old. His fastball has been clocked in the 95-96 mph range. His biggest problems have been control and injuries. He came to the Yankees in the Gary Sheffield trade from Detroit.
Wilkin Arias - A lefty pitching reliever, Arias is 29 years old. He was 5-4 with a 3.65 era for Trenton last year and struck out 9.6 batters per 9 innings. His control was a problem, but the Yankees need some left-handed throwing relief pitchers.
Kei Igawa - Nah!
Do I think any of these guys will make the team? No. But then you never know when lighning will strike.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Putting things in order
This lineup is out of order! Well, right now it is. Joe Girardi will work out the kinks and put it in order. Looking back to game 6 of the 2009 World Series, the Yankees had the perfect lineup. Jeter batting righty leading off, Damon batting lefty hitting 2nd, Tex a switch-hitter hitting 3rd, Arod batting righty hitting 4th, Matsui batting lefty hitting 5th, Jorge a switch-hitter hitting 6th, Cano batting lefty hitting 7th, Swisher a switch-hitter hittting 8th, and Gardner batting lefty hitting 9th alternating with Melky a switch-hitter. Nobody who only hit left or right batting back to back. Speed and on-base ability at the top, power in the middle, and balance at the end. Man, I could write out that line-up card.
Not so in 2010 yet. Gone are the #2 and #5 guys and part of the #9. Time to go back to the drawing board and put this puzzle back together. Which piece goes second and which piece goes fifth, etc.? Let's sort out the pieces: Nick Johnson, Curtis Granderson, Robbie Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner or Randy Winn. Only Jeter, Tex, Arod and possibly Posada could probably stay in the same positions in the lineup. That's a lot of potential pieces to shuffle. Each has strengths and each has weaknesses. Ok, Joe, let's start sorting.
First piece: Nick Johnson. At first glance he would be the natural fit for the #2 slot. He bats lefty, gets on base a lot, has a good eye, doesn't strike out a lot, hits lefties and righties and has some power. The major weaknesses are lack of speed and being injury-prone. So Nick would get on for Tex and Arod, but he might be apt to hit into double plays if Jeter is on-base. When he is on-base he would be a station to station guy. He also would need to do a lot of base-running and break-up double plays if Tex or Arod hit it to the infield on the ground. Plus, don't forget that susceptibility to getting hurt. Maybe hitting later in the lineup wouldn't involve as much base running, and his station to station speed wouldn't be as big a factor.
Second piece: Curtis Granderson. Bats lefty. Strengths are speed and power. Weaknesses are poor hitting against lefites, stikes out a lot, and low on-base percentage. Having him behind Jeter would be nice becauseof his speed and ability to run the bases and steal them. Actually, it might be worth batting him lead-off like he did in Detroit so that he could steal bases and then Jeter would bat second like he's done in the past. Jeter with his inside out swing could move him to third or drive him in after Curtis steals second. The downside is that Derek had a problem hitting into double plays in the past. Otherwise, Curtis could be the 5th hitter behind Arod because of his power. Then, you'd keep the righty/lefty sequence that Arod and Matsui had.
Third piece: Nick Swisher. A switch-hitter. Nick hit 8th last year, and had a good season giving great balance to the bottom of the order. Strengths are on-base percentage and power. Weaknesses are low batting average and lack of speed. The two Nicks have similar skills- good eyes and slow legs with Johnson being the better hitter and Swisher being better (luckier) at staying healthy. He could hit in the #2 spot but is probably better off staying lower in the lineup to keep that order strong from top to bottom.
Fourth piece: Robbie Cano. Bats lefty. Strengths are good hitting ability and power. Weaknesses are lack of patience and base stealing ability though not slow. Robbie could be even more devastating at the top of order where he'd see more fastballs, but he has had problems hitting into twin-killings too. Hitting early in the lineup might take some of the pressure off him in the clutch because he'd have Tex behind him if he fails which he did a lot of last year with men on base.
Fifth piece: Brett Gardner. Bats lefty. Strengths are speed and more speed. Weaknesses are a lack of power, and established major league ability. Brett is still proving he can play regularly at the MLB level. With more experience he could step up and hit at the top of the order. His speed would be an asset, and last season he actually hit better versus lefties than he did against righties.
Sixth piece: Randy Winn. Bats righty. Strengths are from previous seasons where he hit well, got on-base, had some power and stole bases. Weaknesses are from last season where he didn't do any of those things except still steal bases. Plus, he didn't hit lefties well last year. So the pre-2009, Winn could be a possibility, but the 2009 Winn is going to hit 9th or be a bench player.
The good thing is that nothing is final. Most likely Joe will be tweaking the order thoughout the season. Let's try to set an order:
I'd like to bat Curtis lead-off but I'm not sure Joe wants to move Derek back to second. So then I'll go with Derek, Cano, Tex, Arod, Granderson, Posada, Johnson, Swisher, Gardner/Winn. This would be similar to last year in that nobody who bats just lefty or righty wouldn't hit back to back. You'd have your best hitters at the top of the order, power in the middle and balance at the end.
Now what's your batting order for the 2010 New York Yankees?
Not so in 2010 yet. Gone are the #2 and #5 guys and part of the #9. Time to go back to the drawing board and put this puzzle back together. Which piece goes second and which piece goes fifth, etc.? Let's sort out the pieces: Nick Johnson, Curtis Granderson, Robbie Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner or Randy Winn. Only Jeter, Tex, Arod and possibly Posada could probably stay in the same positions in the lineup. That's a lot of potential pieces to shuffle. Each has strengths and each has weaknesses. Ok, Joe, let's start sorting.
First piece: Nick Johnson. At first glance he would be the natural fit for the #2 slot. He bats lefty, gets on base a lot, has a good eye, doesn't strike out a lot, hits lefties and righties and has some power. The major weaknesses are lack of speed and being injury-prone. So Nick would get on for Tex and Arod, but he might be apt to hit into double plays if Jeter is on-base. When he is on-base he would be a station to station guy. He also would need to do a lot of base-running and break-up double plays if Tex or Arod hit it to the infield on the ground. Plus, don't forget that susceptibility to getting hurt. Maybe hitting later in the lineup wouldn't involve as much base running, and his station to station speed wouldn't be as big a factor.
Second piece: Curtis Granderson. Bats lefty. Strengths are speed and power. Weaknesses are poor hitting against lefites, stikes out a lot, and low on-base percentage. Having him behind Jeter would be nice becauseof his speed and ability to run the bases and steal them. Actually, it might be worth batting him lead-off like he did in Detroit so that he could steal bases and then Jeter would bat second like he's done in the past. Jeter with his inside out swing could move him to third or drive him in after Curtis steals second. The downside is that Derek had a problem hitting into double plays in the past. Otherwise, Curtis could be the 5th hitter behind Arod because of his power. Then, you'd keep the righty/lefty sequence that Arod and Matsui had.
Third piece: Nick Swisher. A switch-hitter. Nick hit 8th last year, and had a good season giving great balance to the bottom of the order. Strengths are on-base percentage and power. Weaknesses are low batting average and lack of speed. The two Nicks have similar skills- good eyes and slow legs with Johnson being the better hitter and Swisher being better (luckier) at staying healthy. He could hit in the #2 spot but is probably better off staying lower in the lineup to keep that order strong from top to bottom.
Fourth piece: Robbie Cano. Bats lefty. Strengths are good hitting ability and power. Weaknesses are lack of patience and base stealing ability though not slow. Robbie could be even more devastating at the top of order where he'd see more fastballs, but he has had problems hitting into twin-killings too. Hitting early in the lineup might take some of the pressure off him in the clutch because he'd have Tex behind him if he fails which he did a lot of last year with men on base.
Fifth piece: Brett Gardner. Bats lefty. Strengths are speed and more speed. Weaknesses are a lack of power, and established major league ability. Brett is still proving he can play regularly at the MLB level. With more experience he could step up and hit at the top of the order. His speed would be an asset, and last season he actually hit better versus lefties than he did against righties.
Sixth piece: Randy Winn. Bats righty. Strengths are from previous seasons where he hit well, got on-base, had some power and stole bases. Weaknesses are from last season where he didn't do any of those things except still steal bases. Plus, he didn't hit lefties well last year. So the pre-2009, Winn could be a possibility, but the 2009 Winn is going to hit 9th or be a bench player.
The good thing is that nothing is final. Most likely Joe will be tweaking the order thoughout the season. Let's try to set an order:
I'd like to bat Curtis lead-off but I'm not sure Joe wants to move Derek back to second. So then I'll go with Derek, Cano, Tex, Arod, Granderson, Posada, Johnson, Swisher, Gardner/Winn. This would be similar to last year in that nobody who bats just lefty or righty wouldn't hit back to back. You'd have your best hitters at the top of the order, power in the middle and balance at the end.
Now what's your batting order for the 2010 New York Yankees?
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Taking the 5th
We are not in court, but we are the judges. It's the court of public opinion. What are we judging? Who is taking the 5th - the 5th spot in the Yankee rotation that is. The Yankees rotation has a solid 4 in CC, AJ, Andy and the reacquired Vazquez. Barring any serious injury that should be a top foursome. So the 5th spot isn't going to make or break the staff. Nevertheless, it's an important assignment especially if one of the aforementioned gets hurt or is ineffective. As we all know you can never have enough pitching! Let's cross-examine the candidates:
Joba Chamberlain - The incumbent. He pitched in the rotation last year until the playoffs. Coming up Joba was a starter and has the pitching arsenal to be in the rotation. However, Joba broke into the majors in the bullpen and was a monster. His velocity was better there and so were his results. The one mitigating factor with Joba were the damn Rules. After the all-star break last year, Joba came out smoking. He was pitching very well until those Rules raised their ugly head again. Joba sat for eight days, and then followed an erractic schedule the rest of the season because of the innings limit imposed by the you know what. For obvious reasons he didn't pitch very well. This year the Rules are gone. Yeah! However, that doesn't mean Joba is a shoo-in for the final rotation spot. Far from it. The competition is fierce and management is split as to where he belongs - in the rotation or in the pen. The good thing for Joba besides the death of the Rules is that his future should finally be determined this spring. No more Joba-yoing between the pen and starting. He will be one or the other. Not both. And mostly like stay in that role for his career.
Phil Hughes - The much-hyped Hughes finally realized some of his potential last year, but it came in unlikely place - the bullpen. Finally staying healthy and having a consistent role, Phil became the setup guy to Mo. He was a key reason the bullpen came together last year, and helped the Yankees win the championship. He faltered or tired some in the playoffs, but it was a successful season. Coming into the spring Phil again is vying for a starting job. After all they didn't trade him for the likes of Johan Santana because they were saving him to be the 8th inning option. He will need to add another pitch (changeup), but should now have the confidence of being able get big league hitters out. The only negative is that he will inherit the Rules if he does start, but they won't be as drastic as the ones Joba had to deal with.
Chad Gaudin - Gaudin came to the Yankees last summer and posted a 6-2 record with a 3.43 era. He took over the starting spot vacated by Joba, and essentially became the 4th man in the rotation for the playoffs. While one of Joba or Phil are the odds-on favorites for the rotation, don't overlook Chad. He showed last year that he could handle the role, and is more experienced than both of those guys. Joba and Phil are homegrown prospects and their success would have future ramifications for the Yankees, but for this season Chad may be the better bet.
Alfredo Aceves - The Yankees found this guy in the Mexican League and he soared through their system right into New York. A starter until getting to the Yankees; he was an invaluable swingman on the staff last year. The new "Ramiro Mendoza" pitched wherever and whenever Girardi needed him - long relief, setup, and spot starting. He even had one save. He ended up 10-1 with a 3.54 era, but faltered some in the playoffs. Why did Joe bring him in to replace Robertson? His role may be too valuable to change, but Joe did pitch him last year before Gaudin was acquired when he needed a starter, and his background is in the rotation.
Sergio Mitre - Joe Girardi seems to like this guy from their days together in Florida, but he will have to have a strong showing this spring to make the team. One year removed from Tommy John surgery and a 50-game suspension for testing positive for androstenedione, Sergio should be ready to prove he belongs in NY. A sinkerballer, he needs to keep the ball down to be effective and pitch often to be effective. While he can pitch out of the pen, a trade is possible late in the spring unless he can claim a roster spot with the Yankees.
Honorable mention: Ivan Nova, Zach McAllister, Jason Hirsch, Jeremy Bleich, Hector Noesi, DJ Mitchell, Romulo Sanchez, Ryan Pope, Kei Igawa, and Dustin Moseley.
Joba Chamberlain - The incumbent. He pitched in the rotation last year until the playoffs. Coming up Joba was a starter and has the pitching arsenal to be in the rotation. However, Joba broke into the majors in the bullpen and was a monster. His velocity was better there and so were his results. The one mitigating factor with Joba were the damn Rules. After the all-star break last year, Joba came out smoking. He was pitching very well until those Rules raised their ugly head again. Joba sat for eight days, and then followed an erractic schedule the rest of the season because of the innings limit imposed by the you know what. For obvious reasons he didn't pitch very well. This year the Rules are gone. Yeah! However, that doesn't mean Joba is a shoo-in for the final rotation spot. Far from it. The competition is fierce and management is split as to where he belongs - in the rotation or in the pen. The good thing for Joba besides the death of the Rules is that his future should finally be determined this spring. No more Joba-yoing between the pen and starting. He will be one or the other. Not both. And mostly like stay in that role for his career.
Phil Hughes - The much-hyped Hughes finally realized some of his potential last year, but it came in unlikely place - the bullpen. Finally staying healthy and having a consistent role, Phil became the setup guy to Mo. He was a key reason the bullpen came together last year, and helped the Yankees win the championship. He faltered or tired some in the playoffs, but it was a successful season. Coming into the spring Phil again is vying for a starting job. After all they didn't trade him for the likes of Johan Santana because they were saving him to be the 8th inning option. He will need to add another pitch (changeup), but should now have the confidence of being able get big league hitters out. The only negative is that he will inherit the Rules if he does start, but they won't be as drastic as the ones Joba had to deal with.
Chad Gaudin - Gaudin came to the Yankees last summer and posted a 6-2 record with a 3.43 era. He took over the starting spot vacated by Joba, and essentially became the 4th man in the rotation for the playoffs. While one of Joba or Phil are the odds-on favorites for the rotation, don't overlook Chad. He showed last year that he could handle the role, and is more experienced than both of those guys. Joba and Phil are homegrown prospects and their success would have future ramifications for the Yankees, but for this season Chad may be the better bet.
Alfredo Aceves - The Yankees found this guy in the Mexican League and he soared through their system right into New York. A starter until getting to the Yankees; he was an invaluable swingman on the staff last year. The new "Ramiro Mendoza" pitched wherever and whenever Girardi needed him - long relief, setup, and spot starting. He even had one save. He ended up 10-1 with a 3.54 era, but faltered some in the playoffs. Why did Joe bring him in to replace Robertson? His role may be too valuable to change, but Joe did pitch him last year before Gaudin was acquired when he needed a starter, and his background is in the rotation.
Sergio Mitre - Joe Girardi seems to like this guy from their days together in Florida, but he will have to have a strong showing this spring to make the team. One year removed from Tommy John surgery and a 50-game suspension for testing positive for androstenedione, Sergio should be ready to prove he belongs in NY. A sinkerballer, he needs to keep the ball down to be effective and pitch often to be effective. While he can pitch out of the pen, a trade is possible late in the spring unless he can claim a roster spot with the Yankees.
Honorable mention: Ivan Nova, Zach McAllister, Jason Hirsch, Jeremy Bleich, Hector Noesi, DJ Mitchell, Romulo Sanchez, Ryan Pope, Kei Igawa, and Dustin Moseley.
So who takes the 5th? I'll go with Joba, but while others think it will be Phil, don't be surprised if Chad steals it from them.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Spring at Last!
Spring at last! OK, not really. It's only February, but spring training is ready to begin with pitchers and catchers reporting. So that's good enough, isn't it? For me, it is. Another long winter for the rest of baseball, but kind of quick for the reigning World Champions and their fans. Didn't they just beat the Phillies for #27? Time to pursue #28 already? Yes, it is - ready or not!
Things have changed since they hoisted the trophy over their heads. Bye, bye World Series MVP, Hideki Matsui. Bye Game 4 hero, Johnny Damon. Bye Melky Cabrera, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, and the injured Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang. We hardly knew you Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. They will be missed especially the clutch Matsui and Damon.
Oh well, time to turn the page. Welcome back Javier Vazquez, Nick Johnson and Marcus Thames. Hello Curtis Granderson, Randy Winn, Boone Logan and Jamie Hoffmann. So let's get down to business. Let the training, competition, and games begin, and let the best men win!
Who goes north with the final 25? In reality, the majority of the them are already known barring injury or trade. Here's the 20 we know:
Catchers- Posada, Cervelli
Infield- Tex, Cano, Jeter, Arod
Outfield- Granderson, Swisher, Gardner, Winn
DH- Johnson
Rotation- CC, AJ, Pettitte, Vazquez
Bullpen- Mo, Marte, Robertson
Rotation/Bullpen- Joba, Hughes
So who are the remaining 5? Well, lets's reexamine the 20 we know first. Looks like a backup infielder is needed. The favorite: Ramiro Pena. The darkhorse: Kevin Russo. As an aside, all the infield backups are young guys. Nothing wrong with that, but shouldn't they be playing everyday and developing their skills? Wouldn't a veteran backup serve the team better? Felipe Lopez is still available. I'm not sure he wants to be a backup, or if the Yanks can fit him into their "budget". But it wouldn't hurt his career to be a bench player for the World Champion Yankees, right?
The catching is good as long as there are no injuries. But are you confident knowing the next veteran receiver in line is Mike Rivera? I'm not sure I am. Jesus Montero probably isn't ready yet to be a big league catcher, and Austin Romine is a couple of years away.
Now to the outfield. Granderson was weak against lefties last year, so the Yanks wanted another OF who can hit righties. Thames can do that but his defense isn't great. Winn can play defense but hit lefties poorly last year. Hoffmann is a Rule 5 pickup that goes back to the Dodgers unless he stays on the 25 man roster all year. The favorite - Thames Darkhorse- Hoffmann. One comment- Juan Miranda could get himself into the picture as a bench player with a good spring. The problem is he plays first and hits lefty so that doesn't fit the need for a righty hitting OF, but if the others flop and he excels; then he may force his way onto the opening roster.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Isn't that the battle cry every year for every team? No different in New York. Going in the team feels confident with their front four so the 5th spot isn't critical unless you are one of the candidates vying for that job. The main event will be Joba versus Phil. Joba without the "rules" and Phil with them. The winner starts and the loser sets up Mo unless neither of them seizes the opportunity. Then bring in the reinforcements- Gaudin, Mitre and Aceves. Could one of those pull the upset? They could, but both Joba and Phil have to show they can't do it as a starter, and one of these 3 will have to be lights out. However this shakes out is a win for the Yankees because the "worse" case scenario of having both Joba and Phil fail and go to the pen may be the best thing that could happen to the pitching staff.
Favorite- Joba Darkhorse- Gaudin. Also, lookout for young guys like Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. They probably won't make the team, but an outstanding spring will have them knocking on the door to the Bronx.
That leaves the bullpen, and as long as Mo is alive and well the closing of games will be safer and more secure than your money with the FDIC. What happens with the starting candidates will determine the composition of the pen. Marte and Robertson will be the left/right complement to get the ball to the setup guy like Hughes. Gaudin will be long relief if he doesn't start, and Aceves will be the all-purpose guy. That leaves the rest fighting to make the roster. Girardi likes Mitre but he'll have to pitch well in the spring to make the team. Mark Melancon looks ready to show he belongs in the big leagues. Jonathan Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez are still around to make some noise. However, does Joe want a second lefty in the pen? If so, it will be up to Logan, Royce Ring or should I say it, Kei Igawa to prove they can be counted on to get lefties out.
The favorite - Mitre The darkhorse - Melancon. Keep an eye on Romulo Sanchez, a hard-throwing righty who can start or relieve. A good spring could vault him into contention for a bullpen role.
So my final five are- Pena (infield), Thames (outfield), Gaudin, Melancon, and Aceves. Who are yours?
Things have changed since they hoisted the trophy over their heads. Bye, bye World Series MVP, Hideki Matsui. Bye Game 4 hero, Johnny Damon. Bye Melky Cabrera, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke, and the injured Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang. We hardly knew you Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. They will be missed especially the clutch Matsui and Damon.
Oh well, time to turn the page. Welcome back Javier Vazquez, Nick Johnson and Marcus Thames. Hello Curtis Granderson, Randy Winn, Boone Logan and Jamie Hoffmann. So let's get down to business. Let the training, competition, and games begin, and let the best men win!
Who goes north with the final 25? In reality, the majority of the them are already known barring injury or trade. Here's the 20 we know:
Catchers- Posada, Cervelli
Infield- Tex, Cano, Jeter, Arod
Outfield- Granderson, Swisher, Gardner, Winn
DH- Johnson
Rotation- CC, AJ, Pettitte, Vazquez
Bullpen- Mo, Marte, Robertson
Rotation/Bullpen- Joba, Hughes
So who are the remaining 5? Well, lets's reexamine the 20 we know first. Looks like a backup infielder is needed. The favorite: Ramiro Pena. The darkhorse: Kevin Russo. As an aside, all the infield backups are young guys. Nothing wrong with that, but shouldn't they be playing everyday and developing their skills? Wouldn't a veteran backup serve the team better? Felipe Lopez is still available. I'm not sure he wants to be a backup, or if the Yanks can fit him into their "budget". But it wouldn't hurt his career to be a bench player for the World Champion Yankees, right?
The catching is good as long as there are no injuries. But are you confident knowing the next veteran receiver in line is Mike Rivera? I'm not sure I am. Jesus Montero probably isn't ready yet to be a big league catcher, and Austin Romine is a couple of years away.
Now to the outfield. Granderson was weak against lefties last year, so the Yanks wanted another OF who can hit righties. Thames can do that but his defense isn't great. Winn can play defense but hit lefties poorly last year. Hoffmann is a Rule 5 pickup that goes back to the Dodgers unless he stays on the 25 man roster all year. The favorite - Thames Darkhorse- Hoffmann. One comment- Juan Miranda could get himself into the picture as a bench player with a good spring. The problem is he plays first and hits lefty so that doesn't fit the need for a righty hitting OF, but if the others flop and he excels; then he may force his way onto the opening roster.
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Isn't that the battle cry every year for every team? No different in New York. Going in the team feels confident with their front four so the 5th spot isn't critical unless you are one of the candidates vying for that job. The main event will be Joba versus Phil. Joba without the "rules" and Phil with them. The winner starts and the loser sets up Mo unless neither of them seizes the opportunity. Then bring in the reinforcements- Gaudin, Mitre and Aceves. Could one of those pull the upset? They could, but both Joba and Phil have to show they can't do it as a starter, and one of these 3 will have to be lights out. However this shakes out is a win for the Yankees because the "worse" case scenario of having both Joba and Phil fail and go to the pen may be the best thing that could happen to the pitching staff.
Favorite- Joba Darkhorse- Gaudin. Also, lookout for young guys like Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister. They probably won't make the team, but an outstanding spring will have them knocking on the door to the Bronx.
That leaves the bullpen, and as long as Mo is alive and well the closing of games will be safer and more secure than your money with the FDIC. What happens with the starting candidates will determine the composition of the pen. Marte and Robertson will be the left/right complement to get the ball to the setup guy like Hughes. Gaudin will be long relief if he doesn't start, and Aceves will be the all-purpose guy. That leaves the rest fighting to make the roster. Girardi likes Mitre but he'll have to pitch well in the spring to make the team. Mark Melancon looks ready to show he belongs in the big leagues. Jonathan Albaladejo and Edwar Ramirez are still around to make some noise. However, does Joe want a second lefty in the pen? If so, it will be up to Logan, Royce Ring or should I say it, Kei Igawa to prove they can be counted on to get lefties out.
The favorite - Mitre The darkhorse - Melancon. Keep an eye on Romulo Sanchez, a hard-throwing righty who can start or relieve. A good spring could vault him into contention for a bullpen role.
So my final five are- Pena (infield), Thames (outfield), Gaudin, Melancon, and Aceves. Who are yours?
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Yankees feeling left out
It was a great 2009 for the Yankees, wasn't it? Twenty-seventh world championship for the greatest team in sports history. Yeah, those were good times. Watching Johnny Damon steal two bases on one play, and watching World Series MVP Hideki Matsui's record tying six RBIs in the clinching game of the series. But that was then and this is now.
Brain Cashman decided not to get sentimental with his world championship crew. Why bring back a 35 year old DH with bad knees? Why bring back a 36 year old left fielder with subpar defense? Yeah, they were key members of that 27th title winning juggernaut. Who cares if they were great in the clutch and under pressure? Who cares if one was a perfect number 2 hitter behind Derek Jeter and the other one offered ARod great protection hitting behind him? They are old, costly, injured and you can't stand pat if you want to continue winning championships, right?
So what's a GM to do? Brian, the unsentimental, became Brian the nostalgic. Out with the old and in with the former. First, it was Nick Johnson to be DH and hit 2nd. How's that for a double coup! Replace Matsui at DH and Damon in the batting order at the same time. Perfect!
Plus, he's younger (31 years old) and cheaper and has a .402 OBP. Not only that but he's a former Yankee. He came up through the system and unfortunately was traded in 2003 to Montreal to acquire Javier Vazquez. And to not forget Vazquez, he was also brought back from Atlanta to slot into the rotation behind CC, AJ and Andy. Wow, another double coup - getting Johnson and Vazquez back in pinstripes.
Ok now, let's take it easy! Nostalgia is nice, but let's not go crazy here. They are both on one year contracts so this pining for former Yankees may just be a one and out kind of thing. Nostaglia only goes so far until reality comes back in. So Brian will play a sort of "love game" here. He will not let sentiment get in the way of two of his 2009 "lovers", but he will go back in his black book and bring back two "ex-lovers" to see if they can re-kindle some of that old magic.
That may sound good in theory, but the problem is his memory may be playing tricks on him when he remembers these two guys. Were they really that good before? Are they better now?
Johnson is younger than Matsui but is he healthier? How many times has he been on the DL in his career? Vazquez pitched great in Atlanta and the NL, but how was he in NY and the AL? Can these guys be depended on when you really need them. We know that Matsui and Damon or MD could be counted on. They've proved it. Maybe Vazquez and Johnson or VJ will prove it too; then again maybe they won't.
So will 2010 bring number 28? Is nostaglia better than sentiment? Will VJ be as good as MD? If you ask me, I'd rather keep the two "lovers" I just had who came through for me, delivered the goods, and were there when I needed them. Yeah, they were older but they were more experienced. Yeah, they may have cost me more but they were worth it. I have the trophy to prove it!
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
The All-Star Breakdown
It's the All-Star break and the Yankees are 3 games out of 1st place in the AL East. That's OK except that they were tied for 1st only 3 days before the break. They are 1st for the Wild Card berth, but what good is that if they can't beat Boston, Anaheim or Philadelphia.
So where do they go from here with the trading deadline coming on July 31st? Do they tweak the roster to make it better, or do they go for broke and pull out all the stops? Most likely scenario is a tweak. Brian Cashman made a big trade at the trade deadline last season by getting Nady and Marte from Pittsburg for 4 prospects. The team was hot at the time and looked like it could make a run for the division. Unfortunately, the team failed to get better and finished in 3rd place and out of the playoffs.
I'm assuming Cashman will take the same approach this season and wait to see how the team responds after the break before determining what moves to make by the 31st. The needs as usual are pitching, pitching and more pitching. What else is new! The rotation which looked good on paper in the spring is now filled with holes. CC and AJ have preformed OK (not great), but the rest of the starters have been so-so to terrible. The key to the blueprint drawn up this winter was Wang. A return to his pre-injury form would have given them a top 3 to rival any top 3 in baseball. What's happened is the opposite because of Wang's problems. They now have a bottom 3 that is suspect with Wang hurt/ineffective, Joba going through growing pains trying to become a starter, and Pettitte hanging on trying to remain a starter. On top of that their next potential starter, Hughes, is now in the bullpen. Yes, he's excelled there, but they need him in the rotation.
So what to do- tweak it or go for broke? Let's go through some possible scenarios:
1) Bring up help from Scranton. The Yanks have Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova both throwing well done there. Positive: Doesn't cost anything. Negative: Yankee pitching prospects haven't always performed in NY like they have in the minors (even though Mitre isn't a rookie). They kind of act like Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz when they get to the mound and realize they are not in Kansas anymore.
2) Move Hughes or Aceves into the rotation. Positive: Both were successful minor league starters and have pitched well in the NY bullpen. Negative: They would need time to "stretch out" their arms, and you'd have to replace them in the pen where they both have been very good.
3) Move Joba to the pen. Positive: Joba was a great 8th inning guy in the past. Negative: You would need 2 starters to replace him and Wang unless Wang comes back. Plus, there's no guarantee Joba will be the 8th inning monster he used to be when he was throwing close to 100 with his fastball.
4) Make a trade for either Jarod Washburn, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Jose Contreras, or other 2010 free agent pitchers. Positive: They are rentals and "may" not require as much to acquire. Negative: Seattle, and both Chicago teams are still in the playoff races, and pitchers like Contreras have already failed in NY.
Hey, 2009 free agent pitchers Paul Byrd and Odalis Perez are still available.
5) Trade for and pick up a contract of someone like Gil Meche, Aaron Harang, etc. Positive: Acquire an established starter. Negative: Having to pay a lot of money to overpriced talent.
6) Try to acquire Cliff Lee. Positive: Won Cy Young last year and is pitching well this year but without run support. Negative: Cleveland has an affordable option on him for next year so they will require some top prospects for his services. Plus, he will need a big contract to resign him after that.
7A) Go for broke and get Halliday. Positive: Acquire one of the best pitchers in baseball which would give them a top 3 of CC, AJ and Halliday for the next few years. Negative: The Jays would ask for half the farm system and then you have to sign him to a big extension.
7B) Trade for Halliday and Vernon Wells for a package of Wang, Swisher, Roberto Pena and either Zach McAllister or Ivan Nova. Positive: See 7A above. Negative: Taking on Wells absurd contract: Signed seven-year, $126 million extension w/full NTC ($25.5 million signing bonus). 2009: $10 million, 2010: $21 million, 2011: $23 million (can opt out after season), 2012: $21 million, 2013: $21 million, 2014: $21 million, and then also have to resign Halliday for big money.
Rationale: The Jays save millions of dollars if the Yankees take Well's ridiculous contract and Halliday's remaining money. Plus, it's doubtful the Jay's could afford to resign Roy in a couple of years. The Yankees, in turn, don't have to give up the farm. The Yanks have Damon (13 million), Matsui (13 million), Nady (6.55 million), Pettitte (5.5 million), Molina (2 million) coming off the books after this season- almost 40 million. Wang makes 5 million this year and Swisher makes 15.75 over the next 2 years. That's another 20 million. The Jays could keep or try to trade those 2. Next year is the last year of Jeter and Mo's contracts. They won't get 21 million and 15 million again. Posada's contract is done in 2 years at 13.1 million each year. Unfortunately, they still have to pay Marte and Igawa 4 million each over the next 2 seasons. So what may you have: Roy, CC, AJ, Hughes, and either Kennedy (if healthy), McAllister or Nova as starters. Mo, Joba, Aceves, Bruney, Coke, Melancon, Robertson, etc. in the pen; Montero, Cervelli, and Romine as catchers after Posada leaves; Tex, Cano, Jeter and Arod in the infield, and Melky, Gardner, Wells and Austin Jackson in the outfield.
So where do they go from here with the trading deadline coming on July 31st? Do they tweak the roster to make it better, or do they go for broke and pull out all the stops? Most likely scenario is a tweak. Brian Cashman made a big trade at the trade deadline last season by getting Nady and Marte from Pittsburg for 4 prospects. The team was hot at the time and looked like it could make a run for the division. Unfortunately, the team failed to get better and finished in 3rd place and out of the playoffs.
I'm assuming Cashman will take the same approach this season and wait to see how the team responds after the break before determining what moves to make by the 31st. The needs as usual are pitching, pitching and more pitching. What else is new! The rotation which looked good on paper in the spring is now filled with holes. CC and AJ have preformed OK (not great), but the rest of the starters have been so-so to terrible. The key to the blueprint drawn up this winter was Wang. A return to his pre-injury form would have given them a top 3 to rival any top 3 in baseball. What's happened is the opposite because of Wang's problems. They now have a bottom 3 that is suspect with Wang hurt/ineffective, Joba going through growing pains trying to become a starter, and Pettitte hanging on trying to remain a starter. On top of that their next potential starter, Hughes, is now in the bullpen. Yes, he's excelled there, but they need him in the rotation.
So what to do- tweak it or go for broke? Let's go through some possible scenarios:
1) Bring up help from Scranton. The Yanks have Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova both throwing well done there. Positive: Doesn't cost anything. Negative: Yankee pitching prospects haven't always performed in NY like they have in the minors (even though Mitre isn't a rookie). They kind of act like Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz when they get to the mound and realize they are not in Kansas anymore.
2) Move Hughes or Aceves into the rotation. Positive: Both were successful minor league starters and have pitched well in the NY bullpen. Negative: They would need time to "stretch out" their arms, and you'd have to replace them in the pen where they both have been very good.
3) Move Joba to the pen. Positive: Joba was a great 8th inning guy in the past. Negative: You would need 2 starters to replace him and Wang unless Wang comes back. Plus, there's no guarantee Joba will be the 8th inning monster he used to be when he was throwing close to 100 with his fastball.
4) Make a trade for either Jarod Washburn, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Jose Contreras, or other 2010 free agent pitchers. Positive: They are rentals and "may" not require as much to acquire. Negative: Seattle, and both Chicago teams are still in the playoff races, and pitchers like Contreras have already failed in NY.
Hey, 2009 free agent pitchers Paul Byrd and Odalis Perez are still available.
5) Trade for and pick up a contract of someone like Gil Meche, Aaron Harang, etc. Positive: Acquire an established starter. Negative: Having to pay a lot of money to overpriced talent.
6) Try to acquire Cliff Lee. Positive: Won Cy Young last year and is pitching well this year but without run support. Negative: Cleveland has an affordable option on him for next year so they will require some top prospects for his services. Plus, he will need a big contract to resign him after that.
7A) Go for broke and get Halliday. Positive: Acquire one of the best pitchers in baseball which would give them a top 3 of CC, AJ and Halliday for the next few years. Negative: The Jays would ask for half the farm system and then you have to sign him to a big extension.
7B) Trade for Halliday and Vernon Wells for a package of Wang, Swisher, Roberto Pena and either Zach McAllister or Ivan Nova. Positive: See 7A above. Negative: Taking on Wells absurd contract: Signed seven-year, $126 million extension w/full NTC ($25.5 million signing bonus). 2009: $10 million, 2010: $21 million, 2011: $23 million (can opt out after season), 2012: $21 million, 2013: $21 million, 2014: $21 million, and then also have to resign Halliday for big money.
Rationale: The Jays save millions of dollars if the Yankees take Well's ridiculous contract and Halliday's remaining money. Plus, it's doubtful the Jay's could afford to resign Roy in a couple of years. The Yankees, in turn, don't have to give up the farm. The Yanks have Damon (13 million), Matsui (13 million), Nady (6.55 million), Pettitte (5.5 million), Molina (2 million) coming off the books after this season- almost 40 million. Wang makes 5 million this year and Swisher makes 15.75 over the next 2 years. That's another 20 million. The Jays could keep or try to trade those 2. Next year is the last year of Jeter and Mo's contracts. They won't get 21 million and 15 million again. Posada's contract is done in 2 years at 13.1 million each year. Unfortunately, they still have to pay Marte and Igawa 4 million each over the next 2 seasons. So what may you have: Roy, CC, AJ, Hughes, and either Kennedy (if healthy), McAllister or Nova as starters. Mo, Joba, Aceves, Bruney, Coke, Melancon, Robertson, etc. in the pen; Montero, Cervelli, and Romine as catchers after Posada leaves; Tex, Cano, Jeter and Arod in the infield, and Melky, Gardner, Wells and Austin Jackson in the outfield.
So what are your ideas?
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Outfield Competition
The outfield positions will be for the most part up for competition this spring if you believe Joe Girardi. Left field seems to be slotted for Johnny Damon especially with Hideki Matsui pretty much relagated to being a full-time DH. However, center field and right field are up for grabs. Well, I disagree about right field. It's not that Nick Swisher couldn't be the starter there; it's just that I don't think that will happen. Why? Two reasons:
1) Nady is a Scott Boras free agent after this season. No way another team will be able to give the Yanks fair value for a guy who will be testing free agency in the off-season.
2) Nady gives the Yankee lineup a good power righty bat in their order to help balance the other lefty bats.
So what will become of Swisher? Well, when he was acquired he was going to be the first baseman, but that all changed when they acquired Mark Texeira. So because of his versatility in the field and his switch-hitting ability he will be used as a super-subbing role player. This may not be what he wants, but it will be what they need. It will enable him to get plenty of playing time and at-bats by being able to play 1B, LF, CF, RF, and DH at times. Plus, he'll be ready to take over one of those positions or spots if someone gets hurt. Or he could be trade bait? Three reasons:
1) Swisher is signed for 3 more years at "reasonable" money.
2) Swsiher, as we said, is versatile and a switch-hitter.
3) Swisher, in a package deal of some sort, could help bring the Yankees either a center fielder, another bullpen arm, or a couple of good prospects.
Then there's center field. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner battling to show the team that they can handle the position on a regular basis and provide some type of offensive production. Maybe. Melky had the position and looked like he might be there for awhile, but he regressed last year to the point that he was demoted to Scranton. He's still young, a switch-hitter, and a good defender, but doesn't hit for power or drive in runs, his batting average dropped last year, he doesn't steal bases, and he isn't a very good on-base guy. Gardner can run and steal bases, and is also good defensively. However, he doesn't hit for power or knock in runs, and may be more hitting-challenged than Melky. So will either of them show that they are ready to take their games to the next level and warrant a starting job in Yankee center field? We'll see. If not, then my guess is that they both could be candidates for a trade, or in Gardner's case another trip back to Scranton. Then, the Yanks will have to put that package together for a full-time center fielder, or at least a stop-gap one as they wait and hope that Austin Jackson is the heir-apparent to the position.
1) Nady is a Scott Boras free agent after this season. No way another team will be able to give the Yanks fair value for a guy who will be testing free agency in the off-season.
2) Nady gives the Yankee lineup a good power righty bat in their order to help balance the other lefty bats.
So what will become of Swisher? Well, when he was acquired he was going to be the first baseman, but that all changed when they acquired Mark Texeira. So because of his versatility in the field and his switch-hitting ability he will be used as a super-subbing role player. This may not be what he wants, but it will be what they need. It will enable him to get plenty of playing time and at-bats by being able to play 1B, LF, CF, RF, and DH at times. Plus, he'll be ready to take over one of those positions or spots if someone gets hurt. Or he could be trade bait? Three reasons:
1) Swisher is signed for 3 more years at "reasonable" money.
2) Swsiher, as we said, is versatile and a switch-hitter.
3) Swisher, in a package deal of some sort, could help bring the Yankees either a center fielder, another bullpen arm, or a couple of good prospects.
Then there's center field. Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner battling to show the team that they can handle the position on a regular basis and provide some type of offensive production. Maybe. Melky had the position and looked like he might be there for awhile, but he regressed last year to the point that he was demoted to Scranton. He's still young, a switch-hitter, and a good defender, but doesn't hit for power or drive in runs, his batting average dropped last year, he doesn't steal bases, and he isn't a very good on-base guy. Gardner can run and steal bases, and is also good defensively. However, he doesn't hit for power or knock in runs, and may be more hitting-challenged than Melky. So will either of them show that they are ready to take their games to the next level and warrant a starting job in Yankee center field? We'll see. If not, then my guess is that they both could be candidates for a trade, or in Gardner's case another trip back to Scranton. Then, the Yanks will have to put that package together for a full-time center fielder, or at least a stop-gap one as they wait and hope that Austin Jackson is the heir-apparent to the position.
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